One of the things I like best about cribbage is the strategic conundrums and statistical advantages that players are presented during every game of cribbage.
What should I do....?
It's there crib and I don't want to break up my 7, 8, 9, 9, but I don't want to through them my K, 5. I'd be giving them 2 points which brings my 10 points down to 8 points off the bat. Not to mention I'd be throwing a 5, and they are likely to have a 10 (or the cut card being a 10) more than any other card. But if the cut card is 6 or 7 I'd add to the double run and pick up some more 15's.
What to do....? Do I play it safe, aggressive or go for the hail mary?
Meanwhile your opponent is growing impatient as you mull over your options.
In the situation above, there is no "right way" to play this hand, however, throwing the K, 5 is the best bet. The average amount of points you'd score by throwing K, 5 in the crib is 12.3 points. Also on average, this hand would score 5 points higher than the crib score (even though you threw 2 points). But there is a 13 percent chance for your hand to score 20 points or higher. I'll take those odds and throw the points to my opponent.
It's these situations that make cribbage great.Wondering what to do or what your statistical odds are in certain situations? Here are a few stats that may help improve your cribbage game.
All things being equal (skill level), the player who deals first has an 11% higher chance of winning the game.
Any hand holding a 5 is guaranteed to score at least two points
If you're throwing 10 point cards in the crib and one is a Jack, always keep the jack as it has the possibility to score 1 point for knobs.
If you have a 5 and one or less 15's, consider throwing it into your crib (assuming it's your crib) as the likelihood of your opponent discard 10 cards is high.
If your hand that's dealt has little to no points, consider playing defence and keep lower cards to help when pegging.
The best card to play when pegging first is a 4. The pone cannot get 15 and there is the highest possibility for you to (get 15).
Likewise, never lead with cards that your opponent is more likely to get 15, such as a 5.
Similar to above, if you have a 1,4 or 2, 3 combination when playing first in the pegging round, your opponent is most likely to play a 10 card giving you a combination to get 15.
Holding all low cards gives your opponent an advantage in getting "Go's.
Watch out for runs when pegging! If you play a card that is within 2 of the card your opponent played (example: pone plays 4 and you play 6) your opponent has the chance to get a run of 3 by playing a 5.
Your best chance to win is by playing defensively. Feel like going for that big hand? Odds are you won't get it which can give your opponent the advantage in the long run.
Play cards that total 15 in your crib
If you have a pair, lead with one of those cards when pegging. If your opponent pairs that card you can then do trips, a net gain of 4 points. However, while extremely unlikely, your opponent may have the fourth, giving them a net gain of 10 points.
When discarding to your opponents crib, the best play is to throw cards that are far away fro each other, like a 4 and a Queen.
Don't peg a card that totals 21. With more 10 cards in the deck than any other, your opponent has a higher probability to get 31.
Although it may seem like pegging doesn't count for much, don't underestimate the impact it has in the game's outcome. Even 2-3 points is a common difference from winning and losing. The odds of getting a 28 point hand in cribbage is about one in 171K
The odds of getting the top hand in cribbage, 29 points (28 hand plus knobs) is about one in 217K.
The average amount of points in a cribbage hand (both dealer and pone) is 8 points. The average worth in the crib is about 4.5 points.
It's impossible to score 19, 25, 26, or 27 points in any hand
The probability of scoring this amount of points in a cribbage hand, in order from highest to lowest, is as follows:
* 4 points (0.2212)
* 2 points (0.2188)
* 6 points (0.1375)
* 8 points (0.0860)
* 0 points (0.0789)
* 7 points (0.0580)
* 5 points (0.0541)
* 3 points (0.0392)
* 10 points (0.0288)
* 9 points (0.0271)
* 12 points 0(.0237)
* 1 point (0.0078)
* 14 points (0.0067)
* 16 points (0.0044)
* 11 points (0.0032)
* 13 points (0.0012)
* 17 points (0.0009)
* 15 points (0.0007)
* 24 points (0.0003)
* 18 points (0.0002)
* 20 points (0.0006)
* 21 points (0.0002)
* 22 points (0.000034)
* 23 points (0.000027)
* 28 points (good luck)
* 29 points (good luck)
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